1st of December 2005, just as now, saw me not so very far from the jagged crown of Mount Meru. I was guiding in Tarangire National Park on the inaugural Bird Seekers tour of northern Tanzania. The weather was warm and sunny, clouds were light and puffy - it was definitely dry.
Today (exactly one year later) a spongy veneer of green moss spreads along the breeze block wall that divides us from a neighbouring shamba (small holding) on the southern slopes of that same great volcanic cone. The weather is grey, cloudy and damp, real damp. Brown rain puddles fill the roads and tracks. It is wet and worse.
Eastern and North Eastern Africa are floundering in the on-shore effect of an Indian Ocean Dipole. Apparently less frequent than El Nino, yet inextricably interrelated and doubtless energized by fall out from our fossil fuel feeding-frenzy, the western ocean off the "Greater Horn" is warmer than usual; whilst the seas off Sundaland's Sumatra and Java are cooler than what was, for a brief period, determined to be normal.
Warmer seas nurture onshore monsoon winds that pick-up in late October, bringing super humid eastern air into the depths of the mother continent. Day after day after day, a heavy rain falls from colliding towers of great grey cumulonimbus. The temporarily earthbound waters seek the western ocean via a million jungle streams from capitalism's lost frontier - the forbidding Congo basin, lawless land of Coltan and other dark side minerals! Whilst Africa's widest lake, the by now somewhat jaundiced Victoria, routes billions of gallons toward dead and ravaged lands, the broken cradle of urbanization, via the mighty River Nile.
But we digress, what news of the living, migrant birds?
Through, under and around the geophysical phenomena, as the Boreal Solstice draws her cloak across the northlands, a tide of avian insectivores; who do their reproductive duty each year in that continent to end all continents, zone of zones, the Greater Palearctic; enter the equatorial midriff, in their millions, to replenish themselves upon Africa's appreciating abundance.
Last year at this time local headlines told us a drought had gripped the land. The short rains were failing, or nearly so, and that life to come, for man and beast, would be ever harder. In the ensuing months till April, all across Maasailand, cattle died in droves and the spectre of famine stalked the land. Dusty skeletons lay wherever a beast had fallen. This year all is different; and we hear that, in south Somalia and eastern Kenya, flooding rivers sweep all before them. Coalescing, conquering, seas of muddy water. In our increasingly anomalous times the latest 'natural disasters' here are all torrential and wet.
Well, as far as the fortunes of the Palearctic passerine migrants are concerned; chasing whom as a youngster I revelled in the movement of the seasons from European promontories great and small; my field time around the Meru mountain creates mystery as much as shedding light.
As December 2005 dawned dry and stunted, the grass withering around the bush, so December 2006 is soft and muddy, the panicles tickling your chin as you walk, unless goats dance close at your knee. Based on the 'palearctics' I've seen and those I've not, my last month's birding around Arusha suggests the vast mass of northern passerines have yet to arrive (at least here in Tanzania). The majority are flying a few weeks late.
This week I am off on safari into the great 'dry bush lands' adjacent to Kenya's Tsavo East, into areas where the eastern nocturnal migrant stream threads south through Ngulia (in Tsavo, and venue of legendary bird ringing activities) and onward between the eastern arc mountains of Tanzania - home of the Pare and Wasambaa into the Zambezian zones. So by the end of next week a clearer picture will hopefully have emerged. Anyhow, working backwards through the orders, and for November only, here is my perception of arrivals thus far:
Red-backed and Red-tailed Shrike (Lanius collurio and L. isabellinus) In the 'wide dryness' of 2005 small numbers of south bound Red-backed Shrikes (we are on the northern edge of their wintering area) were recorded from many areas. In wet 2006 up until November 30 my total stands at one.
'Isabelline' Shrikes were widespread in November 2005 (we saw a total of ca 25, at over ten sites, on the BirdSeekers tour); this year although I have seen six around Mount Meru, five of those have been during the last week. We are toward the southern edge of this species' wintering range.
Spotted Flycatcher (Muscicapa striata).
We saw over 60 on the tour in 2005. This year they arrived late and so far there seem to be few about - only odd ones in scattered locations.
Phylloscopus warblers.
In 2005 Willow Warblers (Phylloscopus trochilus) were scattered all over. P .t. acredula was widespread, and there were one or two birds that appeared to be nominate trochilus); so present, admittedly in small numbers, from mid-October of last year; this year amazingly I have yet to see a single one.
Sylvia warblers.
In 2005 Common Whitethroat (S. communis), Garden Warbler (S. borin) and Blackcap (S. atricapilla) had all been seen in some numbers by December one. This November in total I have only noted one species - Garden Warbler as reaching double figures (11).
Acrocephalus warblers.
In 2005 Eastern Olivaceous Warbler (Acrocephalus elaeica) were widespread in considerable numbers by now; in November 2006 we have recorded only three. Upcher's Warbler (A. languida) seemingly always a fairly scarce wintering bird at this latitude, the first of the return was seen near Arusha in early November of 2005; none yet in 2006. This past month I have not been into suitable habitat for any of the other northern Acrocephalus species so no conclusions can be drawn.
The three Robins.
Sprosser or Thrush Nightingale and (Rufous-tailed) Nightingale (Luscinia luscinia and Luscinia megarhynchos) are seemingly late or much scarcer this year; with fewer birds thus far holding wintering territories at their traditional sites near town. Irania (Irania gutteralis) normally quite scarce, appeared widely and in unprecedented numbers last year, none yet in this.
Wheatears.
Northern Wheatear (Oenanthe oenanthe) and Isabelline Wheatear (O. isabellina) personally I have seen many more this year than last. These two are therefore the exceptions to the trend - being both earlier and much more widespread this year than they were last. It may simply reflect the fact that I have spent more time in drier, open country (the rain shadow of Kilimanjaro and Meru) in November 2006; but in my bones I feel there is a real difference.
Perhaps conditions across Ethiopia and Somalia are simply far too lush and green especially for the arid-addicted Isabelline. By way of contrast, within the same genus,Pied Wheatear (O. pleschanka) had arrived in numbers by mid-November in 2005. 
I have yet to see one in 2006; again this is a bird of more enclosed, bushed if not verdant, habitats; far more so than it's two Palearctic congeners, and I suspect the majority remain further north in Somalia, Kenya and Ethiopia.
Pipits and Wagtails.
We have recorded only one European Tree Pipit (Anthus trivialis) this year versus several in November 2005 (they were a noticeably common wintering bird on the upper slopes of Meru in late 2005). However my friend Alastair Kilpin has seen many already in the eastern borders of the Serengeti. Yellow Wagtail (Motacilla flava) I have only seen and heard odd passing birds this year, but again have spent very little time in their preferred habitat. Nevertheless I heard from Brian Finch that they were present in only low numbers at traditional sites in Kenya.
Hirundines.
Barn Swallows, which are easily the most common and widespread member of this group, have been far less frequently recorded this November than last. I became seriously worried for the Old World fortunes of this highly emblematic and much-loved species - a unique commensal of man. However, as with most of the other passerine species mentioned here, we suspect (hope) that plentiful rains farther north are causing many populations of Hirundo rustica to dally in their movements south.
Sand Martin (Riparia riparia) is never a particularly frequent species in north eastern Tanzania (at least away from water), 24 birds were seen on the Birdseekers Tour in 2005 whilst this year I have seen only two, and both were wanderers far from standing water. House Martin (Delichon urbica) generally winters at altitude and this November I have seen more than last, having spent a bit more time at forested higher elevations; however I have only seen one passage bird at a lower elevation on the plain, compared with five last year.
